
Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts
It's Not How You Drive, It’s How You Arrive
Stocks Have Performed Well After Initial Fed Rate Cuts, if Recession Is Avoided

As Central Bank Risk Ebbs, Election Risk May Intensify
Market Volatility Will Likely Increase Ahead of the Election

Stocks as an Election Predictor
Stocks Have an Impressive Track Record of Predicting Elections
Election Day | Elected President | S&P 500 Return | Incumbent Party | Stock Market Right? |
11/6/1928 | Herbert Hoover (Rep) | 13.60% | Won | Yes |
11/8/1932 | Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) | -2.60% | Lost | Yes |
11/3/1936 | Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) | 7.90% | Won | Yes |
11/5/1940 | Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) | 9.70% | Won | Yes |
11/7/1944 | Franklin Roosevelt (Dem) | 2.30% | Won | Yes |
11/2/1948 | Harry Truman (Dem) | 5.40% | Won | Yes |
11/4/1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (Rep) | -3.30% | Lost | Yes |
11/6/1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower (Rep) | -3.20% | Won | No |
11/8/1960 | John F. Kennedy (Dem) | -1.30% | Lost | Yes |
11/3/1964 | Lyndon Johnson (Dem) | 3.90% | Won | Yes |
11/5/1968 | Richard Nixon (Rep) | 6.00% | Lost | No |
11/7/1972 | Richard Nixon (Rep) | 3.00% | Won | Yes |
11/2/1976 | Jimmy Carter (Dem) | -1.00% | Lost | Yes |
11/4/1980 | Ronald Reagan (Rep) | 6.90% | Lost | No |
11/6/1984 | Ronald Reagan (Rep) | 3.60% | Won | Yes |
11/8/1988 | George H.W. Bush (Rep) | 2.80% | Won | Yes |
11/3/1992 | Bill Clinton (Dem) | -0.40% | Lost | Yes |
11/5/1996 | Bill Clinton (Dem) | 6.70% | Won | Yes |
11/7/2000 | George W. Bush (Rep) | -3.40% | Lost | Yes |
11/2/2004 | George W. Bush (Rep) | 2.80% | Won | Yes |
11/4/2008 | Barack Obama (Dem) | -24.80% | Lost | Yes |
11/6/2012 | Barack Obama (Dem) | 1.90% | Won | Yes |
11/8/2016 | Donald Trump (Rep) | -2.30% | Lost | Yes |
11/3/2020 | Joe Biden (Dem) | 2.30% | Lost | No |
11/5/2024 | ? | 7.60% | ? | ? |
Number of Correct Years: | 20 | |||
Total Number of Years: | 24 |
What Sectors Might Be Potential Winners and Losers Depending on the Election Outcome
Potential Sector and Industry Election Winners and Losers
Winner of U.S. Presidential Election
Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
Potential winners: | Potential winners: |
Banks & financials | Medicaid-exposed insurers |
Defense | Materials/gold |
Oil & gas | Consumer staples |
Small caps | Renewable energy/EVs |
U.S. steelmakes | EM equities/bonds |
TIPS | TIPS |
Potential losers: | Potential losers: |
China | Banks & financials |
Mexico | Oil & gas |
Electric vehicles | Small caps |
Healthcare | Healthcare |
Renewable energy | Medicare-Advantage exposed insurers |
Long-term Treasuries |
Asset Allocation Insights
Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value |